TS Dorian channeled Patsy Cline overnight, fell to pieces, and lost lunch money. The 0500 position was 2750 miles east-southeast of Charleston (Still a tad early for the plywood, bread and milk rush). Dorian is tracking west-northwest at 18-20 MPH with estimated 50 MPH sustained winds. Given Dorian disheveled state this morning, 50 MPH may be a bit generous.
Despite some early morning convection reforming on the western side of the storm, Dorian has lost the decent surface inflow and upper outflow signatures shown yesterday. Spiral banding is elongated to the east. Dorian is in a challenging shear and dry air entrainment environment that will continue to stifle intensification.
The official NHC track forecast remains relatively unchanged taking Dorian into the southern Bahamas late Tuesday night of next week. Some models, the US GFS, HWRF, Navy NVGM, suggest strongly and repeatedly run to run that Dorian tracks farther south and falls apart over Hispaniola. The European ECMWF takes Dorian farther north over the Bahamas as a weak wave. The variety of solutions is par for the course given Dorian’s straight track, lack of discernible center of circulation and challenging intensification environment (and the fact we are doing all this via a satellite hovering some 22,000 miles out in space…). Dorian’s intensity is expected to remain in the 50 MPH for at least the next 120 hours if it survives in the increasing shear environment. Do not expect Dorian to become a hurricane.
Mark Malsick – Severe Weather Liaison – SCDNR
